AAMC Recommendations for COVID-19 Testing Appendix A: Proposed Testing Strategies and Population Approximations
Published October 22, 2020
| Population | Approximate total in the United States | Testing strategy | Minimum daily tests needed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Symptomatic individuals | 30,000 – 50,000 | Each person newly identified with symptoms each day, estimated based on a current positive case rate of over 5% (meaning that too few people are being tested), an asymptomatic rate of 40%, a current number of daily positive tests between 40,000 and 50,000 and rising, and an understanding that symptomatic individuals are more likely to seek out a test. | 30,000 – 50,000 |
| Close contacts of every positive case identified (whether symptomatic or asymptomatic) | 750,000 | Each contact identified, assuming an average of 10 contacts for 75,000 new cases identified each day if testing targets are being met. | 750,000 |
| Inpatient admissions or outpatient surgeries | 57,000,000 per year1 | Every inpatient admission of outpatient surgery patient. In a regular year prior to COVID-19, U.S. hospitals provided 37 million inpatient admissions and 20 million outpatient operations. | 155,000 |
| Hospital employees | 6,600,0002 | Strategic, risk-based sampling of 20% per day. | 1,320,000 |
| Law enforcement | 700,0003 | Strategic, risk-based sampling of 5% per day. | 35,000 |
| Paramedics and EMTs | 265,0004 | Strategic, risk-based sampling of 10% per day. | 26,500 |
| Nursing home residents | 1,300,0005 | Strategic, risk-based sampling of 5% per day. | 65,000 |
| Prison population | 1,400,0006 | Strategic, risk-based sampling of 5% per day. | 70,000 |
| Homeless shelters | 1,400,0007 | Strategic, risk-based sampling of 5% of predicted population (may be higher percentage of current service seekers). | 70,000 |
| K-12 teachers | 3,700,0008 | Routine testing of each teacher, with at least one test per teacher per week. | 530,000 |
| K-12 students | 56,400,0009 | Strategic, risk-based sampling of 5% of students each day. | 2,820,000 |
| College and university students | 19,750,00010 | Routine testing of each student, with at least one test per week per student. | 2,820,000 |
| College and university faculty and staff | 3,150,00011 | Strategic, risk-based sampling of 20% per day. | 630,000 |
1 AAMC Analysis of American Hospital Association (AHA) Annual Survey Database, FY2018.
2 https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2020/number-of-hospitals-and-hospital-employment-in-each-state-in-2019…
3 https://www.statista.com/statistics/191694/number-of-law-enforcement-officers-in-the-us/
4 https://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/emts-and-paramedics.htm
5 https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/nursing-home-care.htm
6 https://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=6846
7 https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6917e1.htm
8 https://educationdata.org/k12-enrollment-statistics/
9 https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=372
10 https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d19/tables/dt19_303.10.asp; https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/09/30/cornell-coronavirus-college-campuses-students/
11 https://www.ibisworld.com/industry-statistics/employment/colleges-universities-united-states/