2006 Physician Workforce Research Conference

"2020 Vision: Focusing on the Future"

May 3-5, 2006 - Omni Shoreham Hotel - Washington, DC

The second annual AAMC Physician Workforce Research Conference, "2020 Vision: Focusing on the Future," brought together more than 220 attendees from such diverse groups as medical school deans, specialty society members, state officials, university researchers, and representatives of national physician associations.

The conference featured plenary presentations on the possibility of productivity gains, declining public funding of medical education, lessons from Katrina, and a roundtable discussion on the future of primary care. There were also lively luncheon discussions with Richard Cooper, who made the case that we are facing a significant physician shortage in the United States, and Tim Evans, who discussed the 2006 World Health Organization report on the current international health workforce shortage.

The conference program was rounded out with 28 research presentations on key workforce topics of rural health issues, the growing osteopathic workforce, practice patterns and specialty choice of new entrants, recent state and specialty workforce studies, women in the workforce, growth of regional medical campuses, trends in international medical graduates and recent data on physician retirements.

May 3, 2006
Pre-Conference Session

Welcome and Introductions

Edward Salsberg, M.P.A., Director, Center for Workforce Studies, AAMC

Physician Supply Data

Physician Supply Physician Supply Issues and Analysis Issues and Analysis (PDF)
Tom Ricketts, Ph.D., Deputy Director, Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Measuring and Forecasting Demand

Data and Methods for Forecasting Physician Demand (PDF)
Tim Dall, Vice President, The Lewin Group

Issues for State and Specialty Specific Studies

Moderator: Tim Dall, Vice President, The Lewin Group

Assessing State Physician Workforce Requirements: Methodological Issue (PDF)
Jean Moore, BSN, MSN, Director of the New York Center for Health Workforce Studies, SUNY School of Public Health

Conducting Specialty-Specific Workforce Studies (PDF)
Holly J. Mulvey, MA, Director, Division of Graduate Medical Education & Pediatric Workforce, American Academy of Pediatrics

Wrap-Up Discussion: Next Steps for Data Methods

Moderator: Edward Salsberg, M.P.A., Director, Center for Workforce Studies, AAMC

May 4, 2006

Opening Session

Keynote Address

Pitfalls and Pratfalls in Workforce Planning or Why I Am Not a Workforce Planner (PDF)
David Blumenthal, M.D., Director, Institute of Health Policy, Massachusetts General Hospital/Partners Health Care System

Update on Physician Workforce Research and Findings

Update on Physician Workforce Research and Findings (PDF)
Edward Salsberg, M.P.A., Director, Center for Workforce Studies, AAMC

Plenary Session I
Is it Realistic to Expect Significant Productivity Gains in the Next 15 Years?

Panelists:

Setting the Stage: Definitions, and Implications of "Productivity" for Workforce Planning (PDF)
Jonathan P. Weiner, Dr.P.H., Professor of Health and Policy Management, John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Is It Realistic to Expect Significant Productivity Gain in the Next 15 Years? (PDF)
Scott Young, M.D., Director for Health and Information Technology, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality

Yes - But It Depends on the Definition of Productivity (PDF)
Bruce Blumberg, M.D., Physician-in-Chief, Chairman of Physician Compensation, The Permanente Medical Group

The Non-Physician Provider Perspective (PDF)
Stephen Crane, Ph.D., M.P.H., Executive Vice President/Chief Executive Officer, American Academy of Physician Assistants

Luncheon Presentations

The Challenges of Expanding Physician Supply (PDF)
Richard Cooper, M.D., Professor of Medicine, Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics, University of Pennsylvania

Concurrent Breakouts Sessions I
Four Panels of Peer-Reviewed Papers

Panel A
Rural Health Workforce Issues

Moderator:
Raj Sabharwal, MPH, Senior Researcher, Center for Workforce Studies, AAMC

The Geographic Distribution of Physicians Using RUCAs (PDF)
L. Gary Hart, Ph.D., Director and Principal Investigator, WWAMI Rural Health Research Center

Which Medical Schools and Residency Programs Train Rural Physicians? (PDF)
Frederick M. Chen, M.D., M.P.H., Deputy Director, WWAMI Rural Health Research Center

Clinically Active Primary Care Physicians: Migration Over 22 Years in the U.S., 1982-2003 (PDF)
Alain Vanasse, M.D., Ph.D., FCMF Visiting Scholar, Sheps Center for Health Services Research Université de Sherbrooke

General Surgery Programs in Small Rural New York State Hospitals: A Pilot Survey of Hospital Administrators (PDF)
Brit Doty, M.P.H. Research Coordinator, Mithoefer Center for Rural Surgery

Panel B
The Impact of Osteopathic Medicine's Growth on Physician Workforce in the United States

Panelists:

The Impact of Osteopathic Medicine's Growth on Physician Workforce in the U.S. (PDF)
Stephen C. Shannon, D.O., M.P.H., President, American Association of Colleges of Osteopathic Medicine

The Osteopathic Physician Workforce: The Colleges and the Students (PDF)
Thomas Levitan, M. Ed., Vice President for Research and Application Services, American Association of Colleges of Osteopathic Medicine

The DO Workforce (PDF)
Steven Andes, Ph.D., CPA, Manager, Applied Research American Osteopathic Association

Panel C
Examining Practice Patterns

Moderator:
Clese Erikson, M.P.Aff., Senior Research Associate, Center for Workforce Studies, AAMC

Panelists:

The Changing Paradigm of Contemporary U.S. Allopathic Medical School Graduates' Career Paths: Analysis of the 1997-2004 National AAMC Graduation Questionnaire Database (PDF)
Donna Jeffe, Ph.D. Director, Health Behavior & Outreach Core, Siteman Cancer Center, Division of Health Behavior Research, Washington University School of Medicine

Got Lifestyle? Residency Choice by Women Medical Students - Effect of Economic and Lifestyle Factors (PDF)
Shuolun Ruan, University of Rochester School of Medicine & Dentistry, M.D./Ph.D. Program

Determinants of First Practice Location Choice by New Physicians (PDF)
Chiu-Fang Chou, MPA, Doctoral Candidate/Research Assistant, Midwest Center for Health Workforce Studies, University of Illinois at Chicago

Comparison of Characteristics of Office-Based Visits to Physician Assistants and Physicians, 1996-2003 (PDF)
Perri Morgan, MS, PA-C, Director of PA, Research Duke University Physician Assistant Program, Department of Community and Family Medicine

Panel D
Recent State and Specialty Specific Workforce Studies

Moderator:

Jean Moore, BSN, MSN, Director of the New York Center for Health Workforce Studies, SUNY School of Public Health

Panelists:

California and Michigan: Recent Physician Workforce Assessments (PDF)
Gaetano Forte, Center for Health Workforce Studies, University at Albany, School of Public Health

Urban/Rural Differences in the Profile of Emergency Department Physicians: A Three-State Study (PDF)
Sandra McGinnis, Ph.D., Center for Health Workforce Studies, University at Albany, School of Public Health

The Child Physician Workforce Misdistribution: Magnitude and Effect
Scott Shipman, M.D., Assistant Professor Center for the Evaluative Clinical Sciences, Dartmouth Medical School

The Child Neurology Workforce Study-Inception, Analysis, and Federal Legislative Approach (PDF)
Bennett Lavenstein, M.D., Child Neurology Society

Plenary II
The Public Role in Medical Education

Moderator:

June E. Osborn, M.D., President, Josiah Macy, Jr. Foundation

Panelists:

Fat Years, Lean Years, and the Need to Reinvent Title VII (PDF)
Fitzhugh Mullan, M.D., Murdock Head Professor of Medicine and Health Policy, George Washington University

The Public Role in Medical Education (PDF)
David N. Sundwall, M.D., Executive Director, Utah Department of Health

Medicare's Payments with a Medical Education Label (PDF)
Atul Grover, M.D., Ph.D., Associate Director, Center for Workforce Studies, AAMC

Federal Role in Medical Education: VA and DOD (PDF)
Stephanie Pincus, M.D., M.B.A., State University of New York at Buffalo

Reception and Poster Session

Friday, May 5th

AAMC Center for Workforce Studies: Beyond the Numbers (PDF)
Jordan Cohen, M.D., President, AAMC

Plenary III
Lessons from Katrina Regarding the U.S. Physician Workforce and Medical Education

Speakers:

Medical Education in New Orleans: Before the Storm (PDF)
Alan M. Miller, Ph.D., M.D., Associate Senior Vice President for Health Sciences, Tulane Health Sciences Center; Representatives of Tulane and Louisiana State University

Manpower Effect of Katrina: LSU Health Sciences Center in New Orleans (PDF)
Larry Hollier, M.D., Chancellor, LSU New Orleans Health Sciences Center
Dean, LSU School of Medicine

Hurricane Katrina: Preservation of Undergraduate & Graduate Medical Education at Tulane University School of Medicine (PDF)
Paul K. Whelton, M.D., M.Sc., Senior Vice President for Health Sciences and Dean, Tulane University School of Medicine, Tulane University of Health Sciences Center

Tom Ricketts, Ph.D., Deputy Director, Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Concurrent Breakout Sessions II
Four Panels of Peer Reviewed Papers

Panel E
Women in the Physician Workforce: Maximizing Contributions and Anticipating Generational Shifts

Panelists:

Gender and the Dermatology Workforce: Lessons Learned
Alexa Boer Kimball, M.D., M.P.H., Department of Dermatology, Harvard Medical School

Women in the Physician Workforce: Creating Work-Life Satisfaction for Women Physicians (PDF)
Phyllis L. Carr, M.D., Associate Dean of Student Affairs, Boston University School of Medicine

Mentors and Anti-Mentors (PDF)
Florence Haseltine, M.D., Ph.D., Director of the Center for Population Research, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development of the National Institutes of Health

Gender and Generations: Anticipating Changes in Physician Expectations (PDF)
Stephanie Pincus, M.D., M.B.A., University of Buffalo

Panel F
Regional Medical Campuses: A Rational Response to Physician Workforce Needs Capitol

Moderator:

Four and Five-Year Regional Medical Campuses: A Rational Response to Physician Manpower Needs (PDF)
Michael Friedland, M.D., Vice President for Medical Programs and Senior Associate Dean for Biomedical Programs, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine at Florida Atlantic University

Panelists:

University of Miami Miller School of Medicine at Florida Atlantic University (PDF)
Michael Friedland, M.D., Vice President for Medical Programs and Senior Associate Dean for Biomedical Programs, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine at Florida Atlantic University

University of British Columbia (PDF)
Joanna Bates, M.D., Senior Associate Dean for Medical Education, University of British Columbia

Cleveland Clinic Lerner College of Medicine of Case Western Reserve University (PDF)
Andrew J. Fishleder, M.D., Executive Dean Cleveland Clinic Lerner College of Medicine

Panel G
International Medical Graduates

Panelists:

International Medical School Graduates in the US: Background Data (PDF)
Edward Salsberg, M.P.A., Director, Center for Workforce Studies, AAMC

ECFMG Certification and the Caribbean Medical Schools
John Norcini, Ph.D. President and CEO, Foundation for Advancement of International Medical, Education and Research

Educational Commission for Educational Commission for Foreign Medical Graduates
Stephen Seeling, J.D., Vice-President for Operations, ECFMG

Health Worker Flight from Sub-Saharan Africa: Patterns, Implications & Mitigating Strategies (PDF)
Amy Hagopian, MHA, Ph.D., School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Washington, SeattleQuickTime

Panel H
Recent Data on Physician Retirement

Moderator:

Sarah Brotherton, Ph.D., Director Department of Data Acquisition Services, American Medical Association

Panelists:

Antecedents of Physician Retirement (PDF)
Gaetano Forte, Center for Health Workforce Studies, University at Albany, School of Public Health

Retirement Behaviors of Physicians Based on the Physicians Over 50 Survey: Preliminary Findings (PDF)
Hisashi Yamagata, Ph.D. Senior Research Associate, Center for Workforce Studies, AAMC

Preliminary Results of Survey of Physicians Over 50: Current Activity and Retirement Factors (PDF)
Clese Erikson, M.P.Aff., Senior Research Associate, Center for Workforce Studies, AAMC

Luncheon Presentation

The Global Health Workforce: Our Shared Challenges (PDF)
Timothy Evans, Ph.D., Assistant Director-General, World Health Organizatio

Plenary IV
What is the Future of Primary Care? A Roundtable Discussion

Moderator:

Susan Dentzer, Health Correspondent, The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer on PBS

Panelists:

Barbara Starfield, M.D., M.P.H., University Distinguished Professor, Johns Hopkins University

Valentin Fuster, M.D., Ph.D., Director, Weiner Cardiovascular Institute, Mount Sinai School of Medicine of New York University

Philip Madvig, M.D., Associate Executive Director, The Permanente Medical Group

Mary D Naylor, Ph.D., FAAN, RN, Marian S. Ware Professor in Gerontology, University of Pennsylvania

Summary: Key Lessons from the Conference and Next Steps

Edward Salsberg, M.P.A., Director, Center for Workforce Studies, AAMC

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