Veloski, J.J., Callahan, C.A., Xu, G., Hojat, M., & Nash, D.B. (2000). Prediction of Students' Performances on Licensing Examinations Using Age, Race, Sex, Undergraduate GPA, and MCAT Scores. Academic Medicine, 75, S28-S30.

PURPOSE: We designed the present study to evaluate simultaneously the relative importances of MCAT scores, undergraduate GPAs, age, race, and sex in predicting performances on the three-step sequence of preclinical, clinical, and postgraduate licensing examinations.

METHOD: The sample consisted of 6,239 matriculants who entered Jefferson Medical College during the 30 years between 1968 and 1997, inclusive. The dependent variables were total scores on Parts, I, II, and III of the licensing examinations of the NBME and total scores on Steps 1, 2, and 3 of the USMLE (the latter three examinations replaced the former three several years ago). A separate multivariate linear regression model was generated for each of the six dependent variables. The independent variables were sex, age, race/ethnicity, undergraduate GPAs and MCAT scores. Sex was coded 0 for men and 1 for women, who were 26% of the entire cohort. Students who were more than 23 years old at the time of matriculation (also 26% of the cohort) were coded 1 and others were coded 0. Racial-ethnic backgrounds, as defined by the Association of American Medical Colleges, consisted of Asian, Oriental, or Pacific Islander groups; Hispanic (not white); black; and white. Students in each of the first three race categories were coded as 1. The percentages for Asian American, Hispanic, and black were 8.2%, 1.4%, and 2.8%, respectively. The other students, who included 85.9% white and 1.7% in other racial groups with very small sample sizes, were not coded separately.

RESULTS: The contribution of the MCAT science score in predicting scores on the preclinical examination was more important than that of the science GPA. Being an older, nontraditional student at matriculation was unrelated to all scores after controlling for the other independent variables. The regression coefficients for women were negative for the NBME Part I, but insignificant for Step 1. However, being a woman was positively associated with the scores on USMLE Steps 2 and 3. Although being black was negatively associated with performances on Parts II and III, and being Hispanic negatively associated with performance on Part III, these patterns disappeared in the more recent USMLE examinations. Overall, the only consistent pattern related to age, race, or sex across all examinations was the negative regression weight for Asian American Students.

CONCLUSION: As expected from many earlier studies, MCAT scores were consistently more valuable that were undergraduate GPAs as predictors of performance on licensing examinations, supporting their continued use in selection decisions. These relationships are stable across three decades and apply to the three examinations. Verbal scores tended to be better indicators of performances in the clinical and postgraduate tests. There was no independent effect for older, nontraditional students after controlling for their undergraduate academic performances and MCAT scores.

In this present study, statistical control of the baseline differences at matriculation using regression analysis showed that underrepresented-minority students compared with white students performed less well than would have been predicted on the NBME in the earlier time period. However, this pattern disappeared in the recent time period. This change over time may have been due to the effectiveness of academic enrichment programs.

The most striking finding this the large negative value of the b-coefficients as well as the beta-coefficients for Asian American students. This indicates that, after controlling statistically for science and verbal MCAT scores and undergraduate GPAs, these students performed less well compared with white students. The findings of this present study indicate that Asian American students' performances fell below expectations on all NBME and USMLE examinations, after controlling for these prematriculation measures.

Contact Us    © 1995-2008 AAMC    Terms and Conditions    Privacy Statement