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Shen, S.; Comrey, A.L. Predicting Medical Students' Academic Performances by Their Cognitive Abilities and Personality Characteristics. Academic Medicine, 72;781-786, 1997.

PURPOSE: To predict medical school performance by investigating the relationship among students' cognitive abilities and personality traits.

METHODS: A sample of students (N=97) from the 1985 entering class at UCLA Medical School were studied. Medical school performance was measured by utilizing GPA for clinical course work (obstetrics, pediatrics, surgery, and medicine); cognitive ability (grades in 15 basic science courses and NBME parts 1 and 2 scores); weighted GPA (the average of clinical GPA and basic science GPA) and; overall evaluation (scored on a scale of 1 to 9 -- balancing achievement in course work and clinical practice, class rank, interpersonal relationships, etc.). The predictors used, in two separate multiple regression analyses, were cognitive skills (the sum of MCAT scores from the pre-1991 version of the test and total premedical GPA) and personality traits (measured by the Comrey Personality Scale). The Comrey Personality Scale is comprised of 180 items which form 40 homogenous item dimensions measuring eight personality factors, one validity (V) scale, and one response-bias (R) scale. The personality factors are: trust vs. defensiveness, orderliness vs lack of compulsion, social conformity vs. rebelliousness, activity vs. lack of energy, emotional stability vs. neuroticism, extroversion vs. introversion, mental toughness vs. emotional sensitivity and, empathy vs. egocentrism. The cognitive ability predictors were analyzed with a linear regression model whereas the personality traits were analyzed with a nonlinear model.

RESULTS: MCAT scores and premedical GPA, when used together, were considered to be important predictors of cognitive ability (R=.65). When the premedical GPA was partialed out of this correlation, the correlation between the MCAT score and cognitive score was .63. When the cognitive MCAT score was partialed out of this correlation, the correlation between premedical GPA and cognitive score was only .17. Personality traits were found to be significantly related to academic performance. The CPS V score had a positive linear relationship with cognitive ability, overall GPA, and clinical GPA. Predictive power decreased when clinical performance and personal suitability were part of the performance evaluation. A quadratic relationship was found between a number of the personality traits and several medical school performance measures.

CONCLUSIONS: The authors found that MCAT scores were strong predictors of medical school performance. Students' MCAT scores were highly correlated (R=.67) with their cognitive performance (basic science GPAs and NBME test scores). When personality traits and MCAT scores were used together as predictors, prediction of medical school performance increased by 20% to 51%. Multiple regression analyses indicated that different personality traits are incorporated in different types of medical school performances. Therefore, the authors caution that the use of only a few personality traits to predict personal suitability on all medical school performance measures is not realistic. The authors suggested that cross-validation studies are warranted due to the relative small sample size of their study.