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Mitchell, K.; Haynes, R.; Koenig, J. Assessing the Validity of the Updated Medical College Admission Test. Academic Medicine, 69;394-401, 1994.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to present information regarding the validity of scores on the updated MCAT. The authors reported results of a survey on use of MCAT in admissions as well as preliminary results of predictive validity analyses.

METHODS: Admissions officials from 114 of the 146 U.S. and Canadian medical schools (78%) responded to a survey, distributed in 1992 on medical school admission practices and on the use of MCAT data in admissions. The survey also solicited assessments of the examination in relation to its design and implementation objectives. This study also reports results of regression-based evaluations of the predictive validity of the MCAT, considered jointly with undergraduate GPA and undergraduate institutional selectivity, for first-year grades at a representative sample of 12 institutions.

RESULTS: Survey results suggested that the updated MCAT is generally viewed favorably by admission officials. Response patterns indicated that the assessment of scientific problem-solving, critical thinking, logical reasoning, and communication skills was viewed as having a positive impact on admissions committees. Predictive validity results reflected the usefulness of MCAT, GPA, and undergraduate institutional selectivity information for predicting performance in the first year of medical school. Median correlations were reported to summarize results of regression analyses performed separately for each of the 12 institutions. Five predictor sets were used in predicting first year grades, and results were as follows: (1) GPAs -- .53; (2) MCATs-- .66; (3) GPAs and MCATs -- .73; (4) GPAs and selectivity -- .58; and (5) GPAs, selectivity, and MCATs -- .74. The authors indicated all correlations were corrected for restriction in range.

CONCLUSIONS: The authors concluded that these preliminary findings regarding the validity of the updated MCAT were encouraging. The size of the median multiple correlations suggested that MCAT scores alone provide unique and useful information for the prediction of students' medical school performance, and when considered jointly with other variables (i.e., undergraduate GPA, interview ratings, selectivity), significantly increase the validity of selection processes. Their future research will include evaluation of the examination's validity for predicting performance in the second year of medical school, in third- and fourth-year clerkships, and on the USMLE Step 1, 2, and 3 exams.