Koenig, J.A.; Li, W.; Haynes, R. Estimation of the Validity of the 1991 MCAT for Predicting Medical School Grades, NBME Performance, and Academic Difficulty. Paper prepared for the MCAT Evaluation Panel Meeting, December 1987.

PURPOSE: The MCAT Evaluation Panel was a group of medical school faculty, students, deans, practicing physicians, and health professions advisors charged with formulating a plan for revising the MCAT. As part of their discussions, the panel selected 13 alternative formats for the revised MCAT and designed research to estimate the validity of each. This study reports the estimated predictive validity of scores on the format selected for the 1991 test battery.

METHODS: Undergraduate GPA, MCAT scores, institutional selectivity, and medical school performance data were available for 1979-81 entrants to 11 U.S. medical schools. MCAT examinations for this group were rescored to estimate scores on the proposed new test sections. Items on the pre-1991 MCAT test forms most similar to items expected to be included in the updated MCAT were used to estimate Verbal Reasoning, Physical Sciences, and Biological Sciences scores for these individuals. Validity coefficients were computed for these scores with respect to (1) medical school course grades in years one through four, (2) NBME Part I, II, and III scores, and (3) national level academic difficulty data. Multiple regression analysis was used to examine the extent to which these criterion measures could be predicted by the estimated MCAT scores alone and by these scores in combination with GPA and selectivity. Also examined was the proportion of students who encountered academic difficulty at each estimated MCAT score level.

RESULTS: Predictive validities for estimated MCAT scores considered in combination with undergraduate GPAs and institutional selectivity data were as follows: .69 for year one medical school grades; .62 for year two medical school grades; .60 for year three medical school grades; .54 for year four medical school grades; .67 for NBME, Part I; .64 for NBME, PartII; and .47 for NBME, Part III. Findings indicated that the chance of experiencing academic difficulty increased substantially for students with scores below 8 on any of the test sections.

CONCLUSIONS: The authors concluded that the results suggest a substantial relationship should exist between scores on the 1991 MCAT and medical school course grades, NBME scores, and the incidence of academic difficulty. Their future research plans include collection of course grade data for individuals who take the revised MCAT to document the observed validity of scores on the new test battery.

Contact Us    © 1995-2009 AAMC    Terms and Conditions    Privacy Statement