AAMC Reporter: November 2009

Medical School Enrollment Increases To Meet Growing Physician Demand

—By Sarah Mann

U.S. medical schools continued to expand enrollment this year to meet the increasing demand for more doctors, according to new AAMC data.

Enrollment grew by 2 percent this year, with just less than 18,400 students entering medical school this fall. Since 2002, 57 medical schools have boosted their enrollment by more than 10 percent.

Two forces contributed to the increase in enrollment, according to AAMC President and CEO Darrell G. Kirch, M.D. Four new medical schools—Florida International University Herbert Wertheim College of Medicine; The Commonwealth Medical College in Scranton, Pa.; Texas Tech University Paul L. Foster School of Medicine; and the University of Central Florida College of Medicine—enrolled a total of 189 students. In addition, 12 existing medical students expanded their class sizes by at least 7 percent.

"U.S. medical schools are really stepping up in order to keep the pipeline of new physicians flowing so that all Americans have access to health care," Kirch said.

The number of medical school applicants remained stable, with 42,269 applicants in 2009, compared with 42,231 in 2008.

Kirch noted that medical school enrollment will continue to increase next year, when a new medical school, the Virginia Tech Carilion School of Medicine, is expected to seat its charter class. Moreover, three other schools are currently in the formal stages of development: Central Michigan University School of Medicine, Touro University College of Medicine in New Jersey, and Hofstra University School of Medicine in New York.

Additionally, an increase in the number of people sitting for the Medical College Admissions Test (MCAT)® could be an early indicator that applications are likely to increase in 2010.

"The 2010 applicant pool is following a similar path compared to this time last year, and we continue to be very hopeful the pool will increase given the 3 percent increase in MCAT examinees," said Gwen Garrison, Ph.D., AAMC director of student and applicant studies.

While Kirch lauded the enrollment increase as a necessary step in warding off a national physician shortage, he noted that this move will only be successful if there is a corresponding rise in graduate medical education (GME) slots. The AAMC Center for Workforce Studies has predicted a shortage of 124,000- 159,000 physicians by 2025. As of late October, the perceived high costs associated with the Resident Physician Shortage Reduction Act, which would increase the number of Medicare-supported residency positions by 15,000, made it unlikely that the act would be included in final health care reform legislation. None of the health care reform bills currently before Congress would increase GME slots, but would redistribute about 1,000 unused residency positions. According to AAMC estimates, the shortage reduction act would add about 40,000 new physicians over 10 years, while redistribution would add about 3,000.

"The very bottom line is that our medical schools in the U.S. are working hard to meet the demand for more physicians," Kirch said. "We are advocating strongly for increases in the funding for residency training positions because if we don't, we face the possibility of very significant physician shortages."

It is unlikely the economic downturn had an effect on 2009 applications because applications were submitted between June and September of last year, before the decline in U.S. and global stock markets.

"I think that even with the economic downturn, there is still the fact that medicine is a very compelling career," Kirch said.

Kirch added that medical schools have increased efforts to provide scholarships to students to address rising tuition and student debt and continue to attract top students.

The applicant data revealed good news for black medical school students and applicants, traditionally among the most underrepresented in the medical field. Black applicants rose 4 percent compared with 2008, and black enrollees are at their highest point since 1999, representing 7 percent of all new medical students.

"We are certainly glad to see a rise in the applicant pool and more African-American enrollees," Garrison said.

Among Hispanic and Latino populations, applications decreased about 1 percent from 2008, with 3,061 applicants. Applications from American Indians decreased about 5 percent to 379 from 400 in 2008, while enrollees decreased to 153 from 172 last year. The number of both white and Asian American students who applied and enrolled increased slightly from 2008.

Female applicants were down slightly to 20,252 this year from 20,360 in 2008, while male applicants increased from 21,870 last year to 22,014 this year. Although male enrollees outnumbered female enrollees by 52 percent to 48 percent, Kirch noted that the number of female enrollees has steadily increased since 1992.

The academic quality of applicants continues to be high, with the average MCAT exam score and undergraduate grade point average remaining relatively unchanged from last year. The percentage of applicants who had experience with research or who had volunteered in a medical or clinical capacity remained about the same over last year, while the percentage of applicants with nonmedical community service experience increased slightly.