AAMC Reporter: November 2006

Medical School Enrollment Rises

U.S. medical school enrollees and applicants increased for the second and fourth consecutive years, respectively, according to recently released AAMC data. The enrollment increases represent the first wave of responses by U.S. medical schools to projections of a coming physician shortage.

"These latest figures clearly indicate that medicine remains a compelling career option for more and more well-qualified students," said AAMC President Darrell G. Kirch, M.D. "With the looming doctor shortage, these results are good news indeed, and we hope this encouraging trend continues."

First-time enrollees in the 2006 entering class totaled almost 17,400, a 2.2 percent increase over last year and an all-time high in the post-Flexner era. Additionally, more than 39,000 individuals applied to attend medical school this fall, a 4.6 percent increase over last year's total of 37,373.Medical schools in all regions of the U.S. continued to expand enrollment this year. In 28 of the 125 U.S. medical schools, the number of students grew by 5 percent or more, while nine schools boosted first-year enrollment by 10 percent or more.

"These increases are part of our overall effort to increase the physician workforce," said Gwen Garrison, Ph.D., director of student and applicant studies with the AAMC's Division of Medical School Services and Studies, which annually compiles the applicant and enrollment figures.

Under current levels of growth, the physician-to-population ratio is projected to peak in 2015—exactly one year before the baby boom generation, with record numbers of individuals and high expectations for its medical care, begins to turn 70. To address the potential shortage, the AAMC has recommended a 30 percent increase in total medical school enrollment over the next decade, a goal physician workforce experts said can be achieved by increasing class sizes in existing schools and establishing new medical schools. But even as enrollment and applications are on the rise, the grade point averages and MCAT scores of this year's applicant pool were the highest in more than a decade.

"The applicant pool increased, and at the same time it has gotten academically stronger," Garrison said. "This means there are a lot of well-qualified applicants out there who can fill all the slots as medical schools continue to expand."

Analysis of the 2006 applicant data also showed continued gains in medical student diversity. Applications from Mexican-Americans and Puerto Ricans rose by more than 8 and 6 percent, respectively. In addition, the number of accepted black applicants increased by almost 9 percent, and the number of black enrollees rose by 8 percent, to more than 1,100. Garrison said strong academic performance was also solid across racial and ethnic boundaries, but added that despite the increase, black applicants in particular—especially men—must continue to increase.

"We are concerned about the number of African-American males and other minority males who are available to us," Garrison said. "We desire more applicants in this area and would like to see even more diverse classes."

Garrison added that the AAMC's new AspiringDocs.org campaign, a recently launched marketing and outreach initiative to increase diversity in medicine, can help in this area.

For the second year in a row, men were a modest majority of medical school applicants, with 19,812 male applicants compared with 19,297 female applicants. More men (8,924) than women (8,446) also enrolled in medical school for the 2006 entering class. Garrison said all the numbers were generally encouraging.

"Overall, it is very positive," she said. "It's still difficult to get into medical school, but the message is out there that we would like to train more doctors, and this message seems to be reaching undergraduate students."

—By Scott Harris

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