AAMC Reporter: November 2005

Size of Entering Class Tops 17,000

Biggest Percentage Gain Since 1978

By Scott Harris

This year's entering class in American medical schools is the largest ever, according to AAMC data. As of mid-October, a total of 17,004 first-time medical students had enrolled during the current academic year.

The figure amounts to a 2.1 percent gain over last year's number and represents the largest expansion in percentage terms since 1978.

Experts called the findings a significant sign of emerging growth and an encouraging response to recent evidence of physician shortages.

The total number of applicants for this year's entering class increased about 4.6 percent, from 35,735 in 2004 to 37,364 in 2005. The number of first-time applicants rose 4 percent. Applicant numbers previously had declined for six consecutive years — from 1997 to 2002 — before rebounding by 3.4 percent in 2003.

AAMC statistics also showed that 63 medical schools had increased their class size this year, with 22 schools showing gains of 5 percent or more, and 7 schools registering increases of more than 11 percent.

According to AAMC analysts, the gains showed that the academic medicine community, as well as the general public, was responding favorably to evidence that the number of U.S. doctors has not kept pace with population growth and the resulting need for more medical services. The last time the medical community predicted a shortage of doctors was in the late 1970s, which was also the last time that application numbers experienced a similar rise.

"The top headline from this year's applicant data is that it's the largest entering class, and it speaks directly to the future physician shortage issue," said Gwen E. Garrison, Ph.D., director of student and applicant research for AAMC's division of medical school services and studies."Medical schools are responding to this need in today's reality, and that is a very positive sign."

Garrison noted that the increases came on the heels of AAMC's call last February for a 15-percent increase in medical school enrollments by 2015.

AAMC President Jordan J. Cohen, M.D., noted that U.S. population growth, especially among those over age 65, was helping to fuel a demand for doctors that would rise faster than the supply.

"So while we are pleased with the increase," Cohen said, "we hope and expect that more of our members will increase enrollment in the coming years. It is important to let everyone know that we are likely to need more physicians in the future, and that there will be many opportunities to go to medical school and become a physician. Medicine remains an excellent career choice."

The new AAMC figures also showed a 5.8 percent increase in the number of male applicants, bringing the totals for male and female applicants about even. Men accounted for 50.2 percent of the applicant pool this year, after two consecutive years in which women had been in the majority. Women still hold a thin majority of 50.7 percent among first-time applicants this year.

Garrison said the increase in the number of male applicants could reassure some leaders in medical education who feared that more and more men were choosing business, information technology, or other career fields over medicine.

Among ethnic and racial groups, 2005 saw an increase of 6.4 percent among Hispanic applicants. Among the subgroups within the Hispanic category (Mexican American, Puerto Rican, Cuban, "other Hispanic," and "multiple Hispanic"), Mexican American students had the largest percentage increase — 7.9 percent, up from 809 applicants in 2004 to 873 in 2005. Applications from prospective Asian students rose 8.1 percent, from 6,737 last year to 7,286.

Applicant totals for other groups fluctuated only slightly. Black applicant numbers essentially held steady, with 2,802 applicants last year and 2,809 this year. The number of white applicants increased slightly, from 21,041 to 21,740. Native American applicants decreased from 106 to 94, while native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander applicants rose to 42 from 39.

The institutions recording the biggest percentage increases in first-year enrollments were Florida State University College of Medicine (up 38 percent), Brown Medical School (20 percent), and Joan C. Edwards School of Medicine at Marshall University (15 percent). Others showing substantial gains included University of Miami School of Medicine (14 percent), Northeastern Ohio Universities College of Medicine (13 percent), University of Missouri–Kansas City School of Medicine (12 percent), and Jefferson Medical College of Thomas Jefferson University (11 percent).

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