Washington, D.C., May 1, 2008—An annual survey on medical school expansion, released today by the AAMC (Association of American Medical Colleges), indicates that first-year enrollment in U.S. medical schools is estimated to grow 21 percent (3,400 students per year) by 2012 to 19,900 students. Edward Salsberg, director of the association's Center for Workforce Studies, presented the survey results during his opening remarks to kick off the 2008 AAMC Physician Workforce Research Conference in Crystal City, Va.

According to the survey, more than 86 percent of existing schools have already expanded the number of first-year students or plan to do so within the next five years. In addition, nine new medical schools are under development or discussion, according to the Liaison Committee on Medical Education, which accredits medical education programs leading to an M.D. degree. The AAMC estimates that almost 800 first-year students will attend these new schools in the academic year 2012-13, based on future enrollment figures.

"Ensuring an adequate supply of U.S. physicians is essential for our nation's health. This projected enrollment increase will help alleviate a future shortage of physicians, although we recognize it is just one part of what must be a comprehensive solution," said AAMC President and CEO Darrell G. Kirch, M.D. "As more medical school slots become open, this is an excellent time to consider a career in medicine."

The AAMC Center for Workforce Studies conducted the fourth annual survey of 126 medical school deans in the fall of 2007 to track enrollment and expansion plans over time. A total of 115 schools completed the survey. The information provided by the schools was compared to the baseline academic year of 2002-03, when first-year enrollment totaled 16,448 students.

Survey results indicate that total first-year enrollment in existing U.S. medical schools is projected to increase by 2,635 students (16 percent) by 2012. Public institutions are expected to supply 1,821 of these new enrollment slots (69 percent), and 814 (31 percent) will come from private institutions.

The annual survey of U.S. medical schools is conducted by the AAMC Center for Workforce Studies as part of the association's ongoing effort to monitor and analyze physician supply and demand.

For a copy of the AAMC 2007 survey on medical school expansion plans, go to: http://www.aamc.org/enrollmentplans

To view the latest issue of AAMC Analysis in Brief, "Projections of Future Medical School Enrollment," go to: http://www.aamc.org/data/aib/aibissues/aibvol8_no3.pdf

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The Association of American Medical Colleges is a not-for-profit association representing all 131 accredited U.S. and 17 accredited Canadian medical schools; nearly 400 major teaching hospitals and health systems, including 68 Department of Veterans Affairs medical centers; and nearly 90 academic and scientific societies. Through these institutions and organizations, the AAMC represents 128,000 faculty members, 75,000 medical students, and 110,000 resident physicians. Additional information about the AAMC and U.S. medical schools and teaching hospitals is available at www.aamc.org/newsroom.

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