"The need for more doctors is real and will become more urgent as our population grows and ages," said AAMC President Darrell G. Kirch, M.D. "This increase is a significant step in the right direction, and we are pleased that 71 U.S. medical schools plan to expand their class sizes over the next five years. But clearly, we must find additional ways to stimulate more growth in medical school capacity so that we have enough doctors to care for our nation in the coming decades."

The estimated expansion would move U.S. medical schools to the halfway point of a 30 percent enrollment increase recommended by the AAMC last year. However, the report notes that many of these planned increases depend upon state support or other outside funding sources.

The AAMC Center for Workforce Studies conducted the survey of the 125 U.S. medical school deans in the fall of 2006 to track trends in medical school enrollment over the next five years. A total of 121 schools completed the survey. The information provided by the schools was compared to the baseline academic year of 2002-2003, when first-year enrollment totaled 16,448 students.

Survey results indicated that total first-year enrollment in existing U.S. medical schools is projected to increase by 2,558 students (15.5 percent) by 2012. Public institutions would supply 1,880 of these new enrollment slots (73 percent), and 678 would come from private institutions (26 percent). Projected enrollment for new medical schools accounts for an additional 1.5 percent of the expansion. While it is not possible to know the exact number of new schools that will open in the next five years, the AAMC report estimates that five new medical schools would enroll 250 more students by 2012, for an additional 1.5 percent.

According to the survey, existing U.S. medical schools that are expanding will do so through a variety of mechanisms, including new clinical affiliations (68 percent), expansion of existing campuses (50 percent), and new regional/branch campuses (22 percent).

The key barriers to expansion identified by the survey included:

• Available scholarships - 49 percent
• Classroom space - 44 percent
• Ambulatory preceptors - 44 percent
• Costs - 41 percent

The annual survey of U.S. medical schools is conducted by the AAMC Center for Workforce Studies as part of the association's ongoing effort to monitor and analyze physician supply and demand, as well as to identify strategies to retain doctors in the workforce and make more effective use of practicing physicians. These goals and others will be discussed at the upcoming AAMC Physician Workforce Research Conference, May 2-4 in Washington, D.C.

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The Association of American Medical Colleges is a not-for-profit association representing all 129 accredited U.S. and 17 accredited Canadian medical schools; nearly 400 major teaching hospitals and health systems, including 68 Department of Veterans Affairs medical centers; and 94 academic and scientific societies. Through these institutions and organizations, the AAMC represents 109,000 faculty members, 67,000 medical students, and 104,000 resident physicians. Additional information about the AAMC and U.S. medical schools and teaching hospitals is available at www.aamc.org/newsroom.

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