Two National Medical Groups Will Assess the Supply and Demand of Clinical Oncologists for the Next 20 Years

For Immediate Release

Alexandria, VA, April 20, 2005 — Amid rising concern that the aging of the U.S. population is likely to lead to an increased need for cancer care over the next 20 years, the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) is working with the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) to conduct a comprehensive study to assess whether the future supply of clinical oncologists will be sufficient to meet future healthcare needs.

The study is expected to be complete by June 2006, in time to present at ASCO's Annual Meeting.

According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the overall incidence of cancer will increase over the next 20 years, as the "baby boom" generation starts to reach age 65 in 2010. Cancer is predominantly a disease of older people — 60 percent of cancer diagnoses occur in individuals over age 65.

In addition, improved cancer survival rates — 64 percent of all cancer patients diagnosed as adults survive for five years or longer after their diagnosis — are likely to lead to a significant rise in individuals who need continuing care.

The study researchers will survey practicing oncologists, oncology fellows, and fellowship program directors to assess current practice patterns, career plans and expectations, and to obtain insights on the oncology workforce. The study will analyze the potential effects of expected demographic changes in the United States and how these are likely to affect the need for clinical oncology services.

The study will address several key questions, including:

• How many medical oncologists, hematologist/oncologists, pediatric hematologist/ oncologists, and gynecologic oncologists will be needed in the United States over the next 15 years and beyond?
• What are the likely gaps in supply and demand in total, by oncology sub-specialty, and by region?
• What factors and trends are likely to affect future supply and demand for clinical oncologists?
• How many new clinical oncologists will need to be trained each year to ensure an adequate supply in the future?
• What are the workforce implications of alternative modes for delivering effective oncology services?
• What steps can ASCO and others take to better assure access to quality oncology services in the future?

"The number of medical school graduates entering clinical oncology appears to have dropped over the past decade, so we are concerned that there may be a shortage of oncologists to serve the U.S. population in the future," said ASCO President David H. Johnson, M.D., deputy director of the Vanderbilt-Ingram Cancer Center in Nashville, Tenn. "We are undertaking this study so we can better understand the forces likely to shape the specialty of oncology in the coming decades."

After an intensive analysis, the AAMC recently called for a 15 percent increase in U.S. medical school enrollment by 2015. The association also recommended additional workforce studies to monitor developments and trends in supply and demand for physicians across specialties to inform the medical education and training community, policy makers, and the public.

"Because it takes many years to educate and train doctors, we must take a long view of future needs in order to know how best to respond today in preparing the nation's future physician workforce," said AAMC President Jordan J. Cohen, M.D. "By collaborating with ASCO and the clinical oncology community, we can effectively assess the public's need for this critical specialty in the decades to come."

AAMC's Center for Workforce Studies will be responsible for conducting the study and will work closely with ASCO's Workforce in Oncology Task Force to analyze the study's findings. AAMC also will collaborate with the Center for Health Workforce Studies at the University of Albany/SUNY on the study.

The American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) is the world's leading professional organization, representing physicians of all oncology subspecialties who care for people with cancer. ASCO's more than 20,000 members from the U.S. and abroad set the standard for patient care worldwide and lead the fight for more effective cancer treatments, increased funding for clinical and translational research, and, ultimately, cures for the many different types of cancer that strike an estimated 10 million people worldwide each year. ASCO publishes the Journal of Clinical Oncology (JCO), the preeminent, peer-reviewed, medical journal on clinical cancer research, and produces People Living With Cancer (www.plwc.org), an award-winning Web site providing oncologist-vetted cancer information to help patients and families make informed healthcare decisions.

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The Association of American Medical Colleges is a not-for-profit association representing all 129 accredited U.S. and 17 accredited Canadian medical schools; nearly 400 major teaching hospitals and health systems, including 68 Department of Veterans Affairs medical centers; and 94 academic and scientific societies. Through these institutions and organizations, the AAMC represents 109,000 faculty members, 67,000 medical students, and 104,000 resident physicians. Additional information about the AAMC and U.S. medical schools and teaching hospitals is available at www.aamc.org/newsroom.

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