Washington, D.C., October 30, 2002 - While almost 34,000 people applied to U.S. medical schools in 2002-continuing a six-year decline-preliminary data for 2003 released today by the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) indicate that this decline may be coming to an end. Based on the number of individuals who took the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) in 2002 and initial applications to date, the number of medical school applicants is projected to increase by 4 to 6 percent in 2003.

"With our nation facing new health challenges and a possible physician shortage, the apparent flagging interest in the medical profession, as reflected by the shrinking applicant pool over the last several years, has been cause for some concern," said AAMC President Jordan J. Cohen, M.D. "These early projections for 2003, however, provides hope that this six-year decline may finally be over."

In 1996 almost 47,000 individuals applied to U.S. medical schools, the culmination of a dramatic build-up that began in 1989. Since then, total numbers have steadily dropped anywhere from 1,000 to 4,000 applicants each year. This year's applicant pool of 33,501 is the smallest in the last six years, a 3.9 percent drop from the 2001 total of 34,859 applicants. However, it is still larger than the 26,721 applicants in the 1988 pool.

The sharp decline of males applying to medical schools, a trend that started in 1997, also continued in 2002. There were a total of 16,999 male applicants this year compared with 18,142 in 2001. Fewer females applied too, although the decline was less steep- 16,454 versus 16,717 in 2001.

The projected increase for 2003 is based on preliminary statistics from the number of people who took the MCAT this year in preparation for medical school admission next year. Applicants are required to take the MCAT during the year prior to entering medical school. Medical college admission committees then consider the examination scores during the admission selection process. The MCAT program administered 57,573 examinations this year, an increase of 5.6 percent over last year's total.

In addition, applications processed to date through AAMC's American Medical College Application Service (AMCAS) are up 6 percent compared to this time last year. Currently, 115 medical school programs participate in AMCAS.

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The Association of American Medical Colleges represents the 125 accredited U.S. medical schools; the 16 accredited Canadian medical schools; some 400 major teaching hospitals, including Veterans Administration medical centers; more than 105,000 faculty in 98 academic and scientific societies; and the nation's 66,000 medical students and 97,000 residents.

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The Association of American Medical Colleges is a not-for-profit association representing all 129 accredited U.S. and 17 accredited Canadian medical schools; nearly 400 major teaching hospitals and health systems, including 68 Department of Veterans Affairs medical centers; and 94 academic and scientific societies. Through these institutions and organizations, the AAMC represents 109,000 faculty members, 67,000 medical students, and 104,000 resident physicians. Additional information about the AAMC and U.S. medical schools and teaching hospitals is available at www.aamc.org/newsroom.

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